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Why it is said that ómicron could bring the end of the pandemic as we know it closer

In just over ten days, Omicron has gone from being the greatest threat to the greatest hope. But it is too early to draw conclusions. The latest variant of the coronavirus discovered in South Africa was classified as "concerning" on November 26 by the World Health Organization (WHO) and, since then, much has been said about it and little has been known. The latest information from the WHO, as well as that communicated by South African experts in contact with it, suggest that omicron could be more transmissible, but at the same time produce milder cases than those generated by the delta variant —until now, dominant in the world-. Por qué se dice que ómicron podría acercar el fin de la pandemia tal y como la conocemos Por qué se dice que ómicron podría acercar el fin de la pandemia tal y como la conocemos

According to the WHO report published this Wednesday, a total of 57 countries have detected cases of omicron. In the European Union, the 212 positives registered in 18 countries correspond entirely to mild or asymptomatic cases. Although this could be due to the protection of the vaccines, to the fact that it is early for the disease to have developed or to the lack of sequencing, it is also true that in South Africa - the country that warned of omicron and where the majority of positives are concentrated — the situation is similar: in the world no death of any person infected with omicron has been (yet) reported.

"We're not seeing a lot of serious cases," Salim Abdool Karim, an infectious disease epidemiologist who is helping coordinate South Africa's response to Covid, told CNN. Although in his next sentence, the doctor added: "You have to be very careful with this, because it's still very early."

Those last four words are the ones that experts repeat the most. “Preliminary evidence, much of it anecdotal, suggests that omicron may be less virulent than delta,” Francois Balloux, director of the Institute of Genetics at University College London, said a few days ago. "This would be good news if confirmed, in principle," Balloux said in a statement.

What the “virus theory of evolution” says

Marcos López Hoyos, president of the Spanish Immunology Society (SEI), explains where this idea that ómicron can give the world "good news" comes from. To do this, it is necessary to resort to the "virus evolution theory", which indicates that "what a virus seeks is to persist, and it achieves this with mechanisms that increase its infectivity while producing a milder disease," he clarifies. the immunologist.

Por qué se dice que ómicron podría acercar el fin de la pandemia tal y como la conocemos

Even emphasizing that “it is still too early to say so”, Dr. López Hoyos comments that this would be “the desirable” and “logical” evolution of the coronavirus. "It does not mean that it will occur, or that the virus will disappear, but rather that it becomes endemic and remains among us like another infection," explains the immunologist. "That does not mean that we can relax and think that this is over, far from it," qualifies the expert. The WHO has already warned that, although the variant is less lethal, if it is confirmed that it is more transmissible and produces more reinfections, it will generate a greater number of total serious cases, with their corresponding hospitalizations and deaths.

Raúl Ortiz de Lejarazu, professor of Microbiology and former director of the National Center for Influenza in Valladolid, agrees with López Hoyos. Despite the fact that “it is too early” to be able to predict the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and, more specifically, of its omicron variant, for the virus to become more infective but less harmful would be “a natural path traveled by viruses that jump kind,” he explains. "The opposite would be biological suicide," says Ortiz de Lejarazu.

This would be similar to what occurred with the SARS epidemics in 2003 and MERS in 2012. "They infected fewer people but killed more," says Dr. López Hoyos. The mortality induced by the current coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) is around 2%, while the SARS and MERS viruses had percentages of between 10% and 40% mortality, hence they expanded less and for less time around the planet.

Something similar happens with the different outbreaks of Ebola that have occurred in the world. "Why do they stand alone?" asks the president of the SEI. “Because people who get Ebola have bloody diarrhea that forces them to stay in bed; that way, people don't infect, and the virus hardly spreads, ”he replies.

On the opposite side of the scale, there are the common colds (some caused by coronaviruses) and the flu virus, which emerge seasonally and 'coexist' with the population every winter, without causing hospital collapses but thousands of cases. , and hundreds or even thousands of deaths each year in Spain, and in the world.

"What pathogenic microorganisms seek is to become more infectious and less lethal," emphasizes López Hoyos. The covid would achieve it if it finally produces a mild disease, “people do not hospitalize, they relate and contagion is facilitated”, summarizes the immunologist, thus achieving the objective of the virus itself and, at the same time, of its victims, the human population. .

It should be stressed that it is not yet known if this is already beginning to happen, if it will happen, or how long it will take. “Other coronaviruses have taken years to 'tame'; the difference is that in the past there were no vaccines and today there is," explains Ortiz de Lejarazu, who points to two requirements to be able to say that the arrival of omicron "is not such bad news": the first is that it be confirmed "as one more variant infectious but less virulent capable of overcoming Delta”; the second, that it does not have “excessive escape from vaccine immunity”. However, the expert emphasizes, "vaccination should continue in all the countries of the world that have very low coverage, because the best breeding ground [for the virus and its new variants] is the high rate of infection."

International organizations estimate that ómicron could become dominant in Europe between January and March of next year, although, once again, the data is still “very early”, says López Hoyos.

Waiting to find out what happens to the new variant, its transmissibility, its lethality and its possible vaccine escape, what the experts do know is what would be "the best scenario" right now: that the virus "stop generating hospitalizations as until now” and ends up “becoming endemic”, points out Dr. Marcos López Hoyos. The wish is that. Whether it will be fulfilled remains to be seen. "In science you always have to wait," concludes the immunologist.

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This article originally appeared on The HuffPost and has been updated.

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