Recientemente, el Gobierno de esa calamidad histórica que es Pedro Sánchez presentó lo que se ha entendido como un "plan estratégico" para el 2050, uno en cuyas 676 páginas solo se hace mención tres veces, y de pasada, a "nuestra" deuda pública, unos pasivos nacionales que lo condicionan todo; es nuestra aunque la crea una partitocracia sin control. Un error de bulto que a nadie extraña pues hablamos de un aventurero sin escrúpulos, sin el más mínimo criterio sobre lo fundamental en Economía y cuyo supuesto doctorado en Economía no se lo cree nadie.
We are thus facing another opportunity to amend one of our secular historical errors: bad reputation as payers, not to mention the traps and continuous lies with economic information and statistics.Whenever there is talk of bad public debt payers, Spanish bankruptcies appear.And that is important?And while it is;In fact, for decades, if not centuries, we have had to pay a risk premium for the previous bad managers, march that was repeated again when the incredible Zapatero curriculum (or that of Casado) was known.
In the first part of this series we saw the issue of public debt from the British historical perspective (two hundred years), while in the second we did it from the American, focusing more on the form of government and the change of order and,After reading both, it follows that our problems will go worse.
From the second delivery we leave a possible "technical" limit pending, not historical, such as those that wines, which would summarize as follows: if countries usually have a public sector between 40 and 50% of GDP, there should beA technical limit, right?They will not dedicate the total income to pay interest, when, in fact, it should be residual.And how much is that?Let's look at a criterion and an example.
The first thing to consider is that it is essentialJapanese.
Following this basic criterion, the real interest at ten years should be around 2% in the public risk -free public bond, so for a public sector of 50% of GDP, 100% of doubt GDP with an inflation of 2-3% (nominal bonus type 4-5%), interest spending would be almost 8-10% of the budget, or 4-5% of GDP, more or less half of what we spend on health, and ifToday we are not there, or above, it is because the savers are being robbed with the low type policy of the ECB that also kills the generation of net taxpayers.
In Spain, in 2011, with Zapatero's first legislature we arrived at our limit, the risk premium was shot and the EU had to help us.In addition, the European establishment has tried, via mass immigration, expand nominal GDP to continue its party, but as that is a serious mistake, we now have two ills, the Japanese and that of badly made immigration.Apparently we will continue so until the dysfunctional order we suffer.
The case of Japan I have been studying, here we published several articles, since its deflation began, back in the 90's, and I think I have forgotten more than they would learn, if they began to study it, the donkeys looting "the public" that the public "thatWe are wrong.The Japanese, like us, suffer from one of the worst partitocracies and establishment of the developed world, calamities to which the problem of China and North Korea adds, while we have that of Morocco.
Then there is the French case, Pilar Master of the EU, which is in a Proxi war with Turkey in Libypieces.At the moment they control Morocco, Spain and Algeria, but not their debt.
France has the best electoral system on the planet (uninominal double lap) but the worst political establishment of Europe (Japanese level), one that is loading its business jewels, which we saw when analyzing its bag, worthy heir of the one who prevented the change oforder after World War I and that led them to the edge of the disappearance;In gratitude for their rescue, they like to insult whenever they can those who saved them.Will they believe that someone will rescue you again?
The United Kingdom, in addition to understanding the new American Pax, had a failed regeneration but has overcome it and goes very well.France no, we treat it at the time, as predictable as the failed attempt with Annegret Kramp-Karrembahuer, which we also advance;It does not miss that French military and the majority of the population warn of a civil conflict duemore immigrants, who say it in general but if they would be different, it would be different.
The "Europedant" parapet endures because the Germans take public debt seriously.These great beneficiaries of the old American peace have an electoral system of the most taimado: a partitocracy that grants representation just for the people to provide solutions to the establishment that applies them according to their interests.They were anilious with Merkel, heiress of Kohl - ÉCHEN decades -, time passed and now the Grünen have taken the trick to the electoral trile;They also have to endure the dysfunctional disaster of the EU members and members.Black panorama that comes to us.
On the European Zombie Economies Scale Italy, the main cause of those who always went ahead, hence we dedicated several jobs in this blog, followed by Portugal.Spain was not on that path but it has gotten it little by little.The rise of Draghi or the enormous support of the EU to the little Portugal, are only mere illusions to thread the comet, because as long as they do not change the splitocratic order, the destruction of the nations and their unsustainability will continue.
When one sees the historical public indebtedness data, beyond acts of importance (Italian reunification, German, 98 war), what is verified is that only a change of order, after a crisis in which the existence of the nation itselfIt is in danger, it makes possible the reduction of the weight of the debt, a new order that after degenerates producing another existential problem, thus giving a historical cycle of almost a hundred years where the nations play their survival.Some are successful and survive, others fail and disappear.
After more than forty years with an average unemployment rate above 16%, the Sánchez government determined to cool the economy, which is the worst that could be done, not only in terms of public debt.Subsequently, they join the ultra -left, which comes with a clear agenda of greater demographic destruction, one so sinister that even the woman of Iglesias III is periodically collapsed before the nefarium of their proposals, which you already see that it does not have enough programming asto dissociate from the evils it causes.You have to cancel Spain and control the peninsula, it is clear.
Different issue is that the television cartel covers this agenda with a "obscenary" of good intentions, one that takes us to a suicidal hedonistic messianism worse than the scenarios that we foresee in 2011, as if insisting to the extreme in the error they went to get right.Inelludably, the clash with reality, as with Morocco, will be brutal, forcing an adjustment of the high income perceptors of "the public" that will be harder than we foresee in 2010.There will be no more rescues and the "demobilization" of parasites, in our local and international bureaucracy, it will have to be the caliber of what was made in the armies and industries after World War II.
Then there are those who, in their infantilism and ignorance, because they believe that we are a toy, dream of the married option, after the impulse given by Ayuso.It is the fantasy "post-libertad".Sad Esperanza, because this Sanchez of the social democratic right, with or without Vox's crutch, is totally unable to carry out the necessary changes and will only prolong the agony of a dominant order and thought of all dysfunctional that is destroying Spain.What is coming will be very hard in all orders and could not or wanted to avoid it, so they stop fantasizing that they will make it worse.
Everything indicates that, as in the past, the new secular order will come for the bad, unfortunately, and nothing guarantees that Spain perviva, unless we kill the partitocracy and manage to choose representatives, of course.Yourselves.